Macro & Technical
The forces behind the price. How rates, the dollar, inventories and data actually move each market — and what breaks the link.
Contango vs Backwardation: What the Futures Curve Tells You
The futures curve tells you how tight a market feels before the flat price does. Here's contango vs backwardation in plain English — and what breaks the read.
Copper: the Growth Barometer They Call Dr Copper
Copper is called Dr Copper because its price reads the health of the global economy. Here's the plain-English mechanism — and what breaks the signal.
EUR/USD and Central-Bank Divergence
EUR/USD is a tug-of-war between two central banks. Here's the plain-English mechanism — how rate divergence drives the pair, and what breaks it.
How CPI, NFP and the Fed Move Markets: the Reaction Function
Markets move on the gap between data and expectations, filtered through the Fed's reaction function. Here's the plain-English mechanism — and what breaks it.
How the Dollar (DXY) Moves Almost Everything
The US dollar is the price of money for the world. Here's the plain-English mechanism for how DXY moves stocks, commodities and risk — and what breaks it.
Market Breadth: Why the Index Level Can Lie
A rising index can hide a weakening market. Market breadth counts how many stocks are actually participating — here's how to read it, and its limits.
Market Seasonality: Real Signal or Story?
Some seasonal patterns rest on real physical calendars; others are just coincidence dressed up as a rule. Here's how to tell the difference — in plain English.
Natural Gas: A Weather Derivative in Disguise
Natural gas trades like a weather derivative — storage and temperature forecasts drive it more than the news. Here's the mechanism, and what breaks it.
The COT Report: Reading Market Positioning
The COT report shows who is long and short a futures market. Here's how to read positioning in plain English — what it signals, and what it can't.
What Drives Bitcoin's Price? Read It as a Liquidity Gauge
Bitcoin's price is often driven less by crypto news than by global liquidity. Here's the plain-English mechanism — and the things that break the link.
What Drives Soft Commodities: Weather, Harvests and Stocks
Soft commodities move on weather, harvests and stocks — not headlines. Here's the plain-English mechanism behind grain and soft prices, and what breaks it.
What the VIX Actually Tells You (It Isn't "Fear")
The VIX isn't a fear gauge — it's the price of expected 30-day volatility on the S&P 500. Here's what it really measures, and what breaks the signal.
What the Yield Curve Really Tells You
The yield curve is the bond market's view of growth and rates. Here's what its shape really tells you, why inversion matters, and what breaks the signal.
Why Gold Tracks Real Yields
Gold pays no yield, yet it moves on real yields and the dollar. Here's the simple mechanism — why real yields rise or fall move gold, and what breaks the link.
Why Oil Ignores the Headlines
Oil often ignores the scary headlines and moves on inventories and the futures curve instead. Here's the plain-English mechanism — and what breaks it.
Why Silver Moves More Than Gold (The Gold-Silver Ratio)
Silver swings harder than gold because it's a smaller, part-industrial market. Here's what the gold-silver ratio really tells you — and what breaks it.
Why the Japanese Yen Is a Risk Barometer (The Carry Trade)
The Japanese yen strengthens when markets get scared because of the carry trade. Here's how the mechanism works — and what breaks the signal.
Why the Nasdaq Trades Like a Bond
The Nasdaq often moves on interest rates, not just tech news. Here's the plain-English mechanism — why rates drive growth stocks, and what breaks the link.